Probability and Intuition

Even mathematicians make most of their daily decisions without mathematical help, guided by reasoning and intuition that are usually reliable. But now and then our intuition will lead us off the rails. Can we tell when this is liable to happen, and do something about it? Puzzles and paradoxes are wonderful tools for exposing flaws in our intuition; we'll talk about some old and new ones, and try to figure out what we can learn from them to promote better decision-making.